Recently we have been looking into buying an electric car and were surprised by the wait time between ordering a new car and actually being able to get behind the wheel and drive it. It seems like we are not alone though, right now it is a global problem, as Tom Stacey , Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management at Anglia Ruskin University , explains. The road map to replacing old fashioned carbon emitting cars with electric vehicles is well developed – at least in theory. All the major car makers (and even some of the smaller ones ) are publicly committed to electric. But actually buying a new electric car? That’s another matter entirely. Volkswagen, the largest car manufacturer in the world, recently announced it had sold out of electric vehicles in the US and Europe for the rest of 2022. Ford’s E-Transit sold out before it had even started making them . Even the most basic (lower specification) version of Tesla’s Model 3 vehicle will now not be delivered for over a year , despite the company being capable of the largest production volumes in the world – a recent halt in production in China notwithstanding. Turn the clock back to 2019, just when the electric vehicle revolution was really getting going in terms of sales figures , and Tesla had stockpiles of cars in the UK they could deliver to customers within days. Now, even though they can produce vastly more vehicles, you will likely wait a long time for delivery of a new one. For now, then, motorists who aspire to own a brand new electric vehicle will struggle to move forward. So too will those governments who have plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. In Norway for example, a ban is due to come into force in 2025 ; in the UK, it is 2030 . These targets rely in large part on the usual cycle of vehicle replacement . And for old vehicles to be replaced by new ones, the supply needs to be at a level that can replenish those being scrapped, as well as allowing for some growth in demand. At the moment, there are simply not enough electric vehicles being made to meet that demand. I am involved in ongoing research looking into how and when various firms are replacing their old internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones – and one of the major barriers seems to be sourcing them. Government targets for roads full of electric vehicles may soon seem hopelessly unrealistic. End of the road? So what has gone wrong? To begin with, in the early days of electric vehicles, manufacturers were playing their cards safe. This was a new and unknown world for them, and it wasn’t clear if other competing technologies ( such as hydrogen power ) might be more popular with consumers. But batteries won out, and consumer demand – helped along by those plans to ban petrol and diesel – soared. Current issues have been brought on in part by COVID-19 affecting global supply chains and a shortage of semiconductors, a vital component of modern vehicles. In spring 2022, Tesla had to close its Shanghai factory for three weeks due to lockdowns in China. Before that, it was producing around 2,000 cars per day for the Asian and European markets, so may have lost production of around 42,000 vehicles. This equates to around three months’ supply for a market like the UK. And just when it got the factory back open, it had to reduce production due to supply chain issues. This is because Tesla doesn’t make all the parts to build the cars in the one factory (although it produces more than the industry average ), so as the factories that supply Tesla also shut due to lockdowns, the necessary parts do not arrive. CEO Elon Musk has now suggested his company may stop taking orders, telling the Financial Times: “The frustration we’re seeing from customers is being unable to get them a car.” He added: “We are actually probably going to stop taking orders beyond a certain period of time because some of the timing is a year away.” Again, it is certainly not just Tesla that is affected. Semiconductor issues are ongoing, and many vehicles are being shipped without features , or parked in fields waiting for parts . These backlogs will take a long time to clear, and will be a major headache for everyone concerned. Manufacturers and customers will be frustrated, while politicians relying on electric vehicles for the future of transport policy may need to adjust their expectations and demands. Most importantly, the current situation is a terrible blow for global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and deal with climate change. Pushing back important targets on road vehicles could be catastrophic for the planet, but we still need vehicles. We may now have to shift towards using fewer cars through more ride-sharing, or look to alternative forms of transport, and even converting older cars to electric. If we don’t, the drive to net-zero could soon be running on empty. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

A lack of electric cars is slowing the race to net-zero

Ash

It will be interesting to see how many people opt for electric cars once all the supply issues are sorted. Especially with the cost of petrol rising up by quite a bit over the past year.

Girl-from-Mars

My boss wanted to buy an electric car but there was a 9 month wait for the one he wanted. He went in to a 'traditional' car showroom and had a brand new petrol car delivered in a week. 🙁

Ash

People are probably willing to wait a few weeks or even a few months for a brand new car. But 9 months is way too long especially if you have to worry about selling a car to help finance it

John

They are really long waits at the moment.

We were looking at a Hyundai Kona Electric and that has a waiting time of 6 from paying deposit to being delivered.

Ash

Are they offering some incentives or rewards to wait that long? Or are enough people buying new cars that they don't even have to fight for sales anymore?

John

Ash Nope, nothing.

Julie Brooks-Girskiene

Wow, those are long wait times, I had no idea this was even a problem.

John

Julie Brooks-Girskiene Neither did I until we thought about buying one.

John

So, actually we went for a test drive of the electric Kona a few days ago, and were told that the wait time from ordering to delivery is now about 12 months.

Ash

I can see why the prices of used cars have gone up then. Waiting a whole year is just absurd for a new car.

John

Ash Yep, it is nuts. The other electric model that Hyundai has, the Ioniq, has a longer wait time than that, about 16 months.

Ash

I know it's not an easy thing to start from the bottom up but I wonder if car companies will try to produce their own chips in the future so that they aren't reliant on other companies

Julie Brooks-Girskiene

Ash Maybe, I think that was one of the reasons that Apple started making their own chips for laptops and phones, so that they don't have to rely on Intel or anyone else for supply. I think that the big global problem recently has been due to the lack of the raw materials though, or maybe I have that wrong?

John

So, we actually managed to get a VW ID.4 by taking it on a lease and then will buy it at the end of the lease. The total cost doesn't work out to be too much more and we could get it now instead of waiting for a huge length of time with any of the other possible options.

The only other electric car that we could get here even vaguely quickly was a Volvo, and I actually prefer the ID.4 🙂

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